EdStat: 10 States Will Have at Least 20 Percent Fewer High-School Graduates in the Pipeline by 2030

Concerns about the small private college are rife among those who study the higher-education market, and the full impact of demographic decline has yet to set in. If one takes the Great Recession era as the baseline, 10 states will have at least 20 percent fewer high-school graduates in the pipeline by 2030. And in his 2018 book Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education, Nathan D. Grawe weighs many factors and concludes that “demographics really is destiny”: raw population numbers are what matter most in predicting future demand for postsecondary education. To learn more, read “Private Colleges in Peril” by Stephen Eide.

—Education Next

Last Updated


Notify Me When Education Next

Posts a Big Story

Business + Editorial Office

Program on Education Policy and Governance
Harvard Kennedy School
79 JFK Street, Cambridge, MA 02138
Phone (617) 496-5488
Fax (617) 496-4428
Email Education_Next@hks.harvard.edu

For subscription service to the printed journal
Phone (617) 496-5488
Email subscriptions@educationnext.org

Copyright © 2024 President & Fellows of Harvard College